The cone is the most recognized hurricane graphic — and the most misread. Getting it right prevents a dangerous mistake.
What the cone actually shows
The cone shows the probable track of the center of the storm — nothing more. It's built by drawing a circle around the forecast center position at each point in time (now, +12 hours, +24 hours, and so on) and wrapping a smooth shape around them. The dots or markers along the line are those forecast center positions; the shaded cone is simply the swept area of the surrounding circles.
Those circles aren't sized for your storm. Their width comes from the National Hurricane Center's historical forecast error over the past five years — how far off NHC's track forecasts have typically been. By design, the center stays inside the cone only about two-thirds of the time, which means roughly one time in three the center tracks outside the cone entirely.
Why a monster and a minimal storm get the same cone
Because the width is just a statistical summary of past forecast error, the cone is drawn the same whether the storm is a small tropical storm or a Category 5. It doesn't widen for a bigger or stronger storm, and it doesn't narrow for a weak one. Size and intensity live on other graphics — the cone says nothing about either, and nothing about how far the hazards reach.
The mistake that gets people hurt
If your town sits just outside the edge of the cone, it's tempting to think you're in the clear. You are not. Hazards routinely extend far beyond the cone. Damaging wind, storm surge, tornadoes, and especially rainfall and inland flooding regularly reach a hundred miles or more from the center — and rip currents kill along beaches hundreds of miles from a storm that never lands near them. A hurricane whose center passes well to your west can still flood your neighborhood, knock out your power, and spin up tornadoes over your county.
What changed for 2026 — and why it matters
NHC has heard this misread for years. After an experimental run in 2024-2025, the official cone graphic now includes inland tropical-storm and hurricane watches and warnings, not just coastal ones — so you can see the wind risk pushing well away from the coastline, right on the same picture. The lesson is built into the graphic now: the cone line is where the center might go; the colored watches and warnings are who needs to act.
How to actually read a cone
- Find the center line and the dots. That's the forecast path of the center, with positions at set times — note the day/time labels so you know when, not just where.
- Don't treat the edge as a safety line. Stop asking “am I in the cone?” and start asking “what hazards are forecast for my location?”
- Open the hazard graphics. Check the separate wind, storm surge, and rainfall products, plus your local watches and warnings — those show your actual risk.
- Watch the trend. Compare advisories over time instead of fixating on one frame; the forecast shifts, and the cone shifts with it.
Bottom line
The cone is a useful summary of one thing — track uncertainty. It was never meant to be a map of who needs to prepare. For that, look up your specific location and follow the hazard-by-hazard products and your local emergency officials. Outside the cone is not outside the danger.