Wind Probabilities Explained
The cone shows where the center might go; the wind-speed probabilities tell you the odds that dangerous winds actually reach you — folding in all the forecast uncertainty. Here's how to read them, and why a 40% chance is a reason to act.
The cone tells you where the center might go. The wind speed probabilities answer a more useful question: what are the odds that dangerous winds reach me? Once you can read them, they're one of the best tools for deciding whether to act. What the product actually shows NHC's wind-speed probabilities give the percent chance that sustained winds of a given strength will reach a location within the forecast period. There are three thresholds: 39 mph (tropical-storm-force) — strong enough to make outdoor prep dangerous and travel difficult. 58 mph — damaging winds. 74 mph (hurricane-force) — the …
Create a free account to unlock the full article
It's free — no credit card. A free TropicalInfo account unlocks the full page plus plain-language storm alerts for your area.
Free forever. Upgrade only if you want county-specific reports.