2-day Outlook — Eastern Pacific
Plain-language outlook
Over the next 48 hours, a cluster of storms south-southwest of Baja (Invest 92E) has a high chance (about 90%) of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday — that could mean heavy rain and possible flooding for parts of southern Baja and nearby Pacific waters. A second area (Invest 91E) has about a 50% chance of becoming a depression or storm, mainly affecting offshore waters and possibly bringing some heavier showers to Mexico’s southwest coast, and a third nearby area has essentially no chance (0%) of developing in the next two days.
This is a short summary.
Upgrade for the full forecast summary
Eastern Pacific
NHC text discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lala, located north of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, and on Tropical Storm Moke, located about 400 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Southwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are quickly becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on Sunday as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Central East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form before it interacts with, or merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92) late this weekend or early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico: Another area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Gibbs