Bret — 2023

A tropical depression formed from a westward-moving tropical wave and became Tropical Storm Bret on 19 June 2023 about 1,100–1,300 nautical miles east of Barbados. Bret moved quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic, strengthened through 21–22 June, reached peak strength on 22 June, then weakened as increasing wind shear and its fast motion displaced its strongest convection. The system lost its closed low and degenerated into a trough over the central Caribbean Sea late on 24 June, though its remnants continued westward producing gusty winds and showers for another day. Bret passed through the southern Lesser Antilles on 22–23 June. The center passed near the northern tip of Barbados just after 2100 UTC 22 June, and Bret made a recorded landfall on the island of St. Vincent at about 0315 UTC 23 June while still a tropical storm. The strongest winds were generally north of the center as the system moved through the Windward Islands. The storm’s maximum sustained wind was estimated at 60 knots (69 mph) at 0600–1200 UTC 22 June, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 996 mb. At landfall on St. Vincent the best-track intensity was 55 knots (about 63 mph) with a pressure around 1001 mb, making Bret a moderate tropical storm at peak and at landfall. Storm surge reports in the NHC data tables show storm tide and surge fields for buoys and stations but no large, widespread surge values were emphasized in the report. Rainfall totals were modest because of Bret’s quick motion: the highest measured storm total was 5.98 inches (151.8 mm) at Jennings Station on St. Vincent. Other totals included 2.78 in (70.6 mm) at Hewanorra Airport, St. Lucia, and 2.60 in (66 mm) at Grantley Adams International Airport, Barbados. Most Windward Islands locations reported 2–3 inches with isolated 5–6 inch amounts. There were no reported deaths or serious injuries attributed to Bret. Impacts included downed trees, power outages affecting roughly 50–60% of customers in St. Lucia and in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, damage to about 35 roofs and 17 homes reported regionally, and some agricultural losses in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. No monetary damage estimates were reported. Noteworthy aspects: Bret’s formation location (10.7°N, 37.3°W on 19 June) was unusually far east and south for June in the tropical Atlantic — the farthest southeast June genesis in the satellite era. Bret briefly reached near-strong tropical-storm intensity, but aircraft and satellite data showed mid-level convection displaced east of the low-level center because of westerly shear, complicating intensity estimates. NHC track and intensity forecasts were generally skillful at short lead times; some models overpredicted strengthening and a more poleward track in early forecasts.