Erin — 2025

A tropical depression formed just southwest of Sal in the Cabo Verde Islands around 0000 UTC 11 August 2025 from a tropical wave that moved off Africa on 8 August. The system became Tropical Storm Erin by 0600 UTC 11 August and tracked generally westward across the tropical Atlantic before turning west-northwest and then northward into the subtropics. Erin underwent a period of rapid strengthening on 16 August and reached major hurricane strength several times, moving on a long parabolic track across the North Atlantic before becoming an extratropical hurricane-force cyclone on 22 August and finally merging with another low between Iceland and Ireland on 27 August. Erin made an early landfall in the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands, striking Santo Antão around 0600 UTC 11 August as a 35‑kt (40 mph) tropical storm. After that, only the broad outer circulation affected land again: outer winds and waves impacted the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, parts of the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, and a long stretch of the U.S. East Coast, but no subsequent full-center landfalls occurred after Santo Antão. The storm’s peak intensity was 140 kt (161 mph) with a minimum central pressure of about 913 mb around 1800 UTC 16 August, at which time Erin was a category 5 hurricane. Aircraft and dropsonde data support the 140‑kt best estimate; a brief higher 1‑minute dropwindsonde gust was measured but the sustained wind analysis supports the 140‑kt peak. Erin later weakened and re‑intensified several times, with secondary peaks near 120 kt on 18 August and near 95 kt on 20–21 August. Erin produced heavy rain and freshwater flooding in the Cabo Verde Islands on 11 August, where São Vicente reported totals of 287 mm (11.30 in) at Calhau and 224 mm (8.82 in) at Mindelo between 0100–0800 UTC; those floods caused severe local impacts. Rainfall totals over 10 inches were recorded in parts of the British Virgin Islands, producing widespread flooding and landslides (notably on Virgin Gorda). Along the U.S. East Coast, Erin’s very large wave field and surge produced 1 to 3 ft of inundation along much of the coast from North Carolina to New Jersey; tide gauges recorded peak water levels of 3.4 ft MHHW at Duck, NC, 3.3 ft at Wachapreague, VA, and about 3.0 ft at Lewes, DE and Cape May, NJ. Numerous beaches and low-lying roads were flooded, and dunes were breached on parts of the Outer Banks. Thirteen direct fatalities were attributed to Erin. Seven people drowned in freshwater flooding on São Vicente, Cabo Verde. Six additional drownings were due to rip currents: three in Puerto Rico, one in the eastern Dominican Republic (La Romana), one at Sailors Haven on Fire Island, New York, and one at Hampton Beach, New Hampshire. Damage in the United States was relatively limited compared with major landfalling storms; North Carolina reported about $3.1 million in damage (mostly in Buxton, Dare County), dune breaches, road closures including part of NC Highway 12, and two structures with major damage. Impacts in Bermuda were minor. Noteworthy points include Erin’s very large size (wind field in roughly the 92nd–95th percentile north of 20°N), its rapid intensification to category 5 on 16 August, and multiple cycles of eyewall replacement and re‑intensification. NHC track forecasts performed well compared with recent averages, but the rapid intensification on 16 August and some intensity changes were not well predicted in the official forecasts. Genesis was also not anticipated far in advance because development occurred unusually far east in the Atlantic.