Franklin — 2023

A broad area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic organized into a tropical depression on 20 August 2023 about 150 nautical miles west of St. Vincent. It became Tropical Storm Franklin later that day, moved generally west-northwest and then northward, crossed the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic on 23 August, and moved into the southwestern Atlantic. After turning northwest it strengthened to a hurricane on 26 August, rapidly intensified to peak strength on 29 August, then recurved northeastward and passed about 120–125 nmi south-southwest of Bermuda on 31 August. Franklin became an extratropical hurricane-force low on 1 September and dissipated by 10 September after looping in the northeastern Atlantic. Franklin made one documented landfall on the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic near 1000 UTC on 23 August 2023. The post-storm analysis sets the landfall intensity at about 40 kt (46 mph) with a central pressure near 1003 mb, meaning it was a tropical storm at landfall. Bermuda experienced only tropical-storm conditions as the storm passed well to the southwest; no direct hurricane landfalls on other islands were recorded. The storm’s maximum intensity was estimated at 130 kt (150 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 926 mb around 0000–0300 UTC 29 August 2023. At peak this made Franklin a high-end Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Aircraft reconnaissance (flight-level winds, SFMR) and dropsonde data support the peak wind and pressure estimates. Storm surge along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic may have been limited; quantitative surge measurements are not available. Tides on Bermuda were slightly above normal, with observed storm-tide/inundation values up to about 1.12 ft at St. George’s Island and smaller values elsewhere. Rainfall in the Dominican Republic was widespread and heavy, mostly 6–10 inches; the maximum reported total was 10.06 inches (255.6 mm) at Santo Domingo. Rainfall on Bermuda was generally below 1 inch. The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic reported three direct deaths associated with Franklin (two from freshwater flooding; the third with cause unknown). Media reports estimate about $90 million (USD) in damage in the Dominican Republic, primarily from freshwater flooding to homes and infrastructure. Impacts on Bermuda were minor, mainly isolated power outages and tropical-storm-force winds with gusts up to about 50–59 kt reported at some stations. Noteworthy points: Franklin’s genesis was poorly timed in forecasts—outlook probabilities rose to high only within about 6–18 hours of actual formation. Official track forecasts had larger-than-average errors for this storm, in part because Franklin’s track was unusually complex for August (a low-latitude recurvature and sharp northwest turn). Official intensity forecasts generally performed reasonably well, but Franklin’s rapid intensification to a stronger-than-expected peak was not fully captured in some forecasts.