Jerry — 2025

A compact tropical cyclone formed from a tropical wave that moved off West Africa on 3 October and developed a well-defined surface circulation by 0600 UTC 7 October about 1,100 nautical miles east of the Windward Islands.designated Tropical Storm Jerry at formation, it moved quickly west‑northwest under a subtropical ridge. Jerry peaked on 8 October and then slowed, turned northwest near the Leeward Islands on 9 October, passed just east of Barbuda around 0000 UTC 10 October, moved northward thereafter, and lost tropical cyclone structure, opening into a trough shortly after 1200 UTC 11 October. Jerry did not make a classic landfall as a hurricane, but it passed very close to the northern Leeward Islands. The closest approach was about 25 nmi east of Barbuda around 0000 UTC 10 October. Tropical storm warnings and watches were issued for islands including Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin/Sint Maarten, St. Barthelemy, Antigua, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe and adjacent islands; warnings were discontinued as the system moved north and weakened on 10 October. The storm’s maximum sustained winds reached 55 knots (about 63 mph) from 1200 UTC 8 October to 0600 UTC 9 October, with a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb. These values place Jerry at tropical storm strength at its peak rather than hurricane intensity. Jerry produced no significant measured storm surge, but it generated rough surf and dangerous rip currents across parts of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Rainfall totals of 4–7 inches (100–175 mm) were common across the Leeward Islands, with a maximum observed 8.35 inches (212 mm) at Antigua’s V.C. Bird International station. Notable station totals include 7.80 inches at Le Moule Laureal in Guadeloupe, 6.39 inches at Le Raizet (Guadeloupe), 5.57 inches at La Désirade (Guadeloupe), and 5.07 inches at Trois-Îlets (Martinique). There was one confirmed direct fatality: a man in Guadeloupe who drowned after his vehicle was overtaken by rapidly rising floodwaters near Le Moule. Significant flooding, road closures, power outages, water damage to homes and businesses, and some roof damage (including at the Antigua Meteorological Service building) were reported across Guadeloupe, Antigua, and nearby islands. A tugboat grounded near Guadeloupe had seven occupants who were rescued; no monetary damage estimate was available in the report. Forecasts generally anticipated Jerry’s formation well in advance, and official track forecasts had smaller-than-average errors at many forecast times. However, intensity forecasts had a high bias and larger-than-average errors at longer lead times because mid‑level wind shear and dry air limited strengthening more than expected. The storm’s asymmetric structure kept most strongest winds and heaviest rain offshore during its closest approach to the Leeward Islands.