Leslie — 2024

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 28 September developed into a well-defined low on 1 October and became a tropical depression at 0600 UTC on 2 October about 300 nautical miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Over the next ten days the system tracked generally west-northwest and then northwest across the eastern and central Atlantic, fluctuating between tropical storm and hurricane strength before weakening and dissipating by 1200 UTC on 12 October. Leslie did not make any landfalls. It remained over open water for its entire life and no coastal watches or warnings were issued. The storm’s maximum sustained winds reached 90 knots (105 mph) at 0000 UTC on 10 October, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 970 mb. That peak corresponds to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale before it began to weaken over cooler waters. Because Leslie stayed well away from land, there were no reports of storm surge or measured coastal inundation tied to the cyclone, and no land-based rainfall totals associated with Leslie are reported in the official record. There were also no ship reports of tropical-storm-force winds. No fatalities or damage were reported in association with Leslie. The storm’s impacts on populated areas were negligible since it remained over the open Atlantic. Noteworthy aspects include that Leslie formed sooner than some forecasts anticipated (it was introduced in forecasts only 72 hours before formation), and NHC track forecasts were substantially more accurate than recent 5-year mean errors. Intensity forecasts were more challenging, partly because Leslie followed the track of the earlier Hurricane Kirk and was expected to weaken over Kirk’s cooler wake but instead maintained strength and re-intensified, producing larger-than-average intensity forecast errors.