Melissa — 2025

A tropical wave that left the coast of Africa on October 13 strengthened in the central Caribbean and became Tropical Storm Melissa at 0600 UTC October 21 about 275 n mi south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The system moved slowly and meandered for several days before becoming a hurricane on October 25 south of Jamaica. Melissa then rapidly intensified over very warm water, reached peak intensity on 28 October while south of Jamaica, made multiple turns northeastward and northward, crossed western Jamaica, then moved between Jamaica and Cuba, struck eastern Cuba, passed through the southeastern Bahamas, accelerated across the western Atlantic north of Bermuda, and became extratropical by 1200 UTC October 31 about 350 n mi north-northeast of Bermuda. Melissa made a catastrophic landfall on Jamaica near New Hope (Westmoreland Parish) around 1725 UTC 28 October as an estimated Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds near 160 kt. It made a second landfall near Chivirico in Santiago de Cuba about 0720 UTC 29 October as an estimated Category 3 hurricane (100 kt). In the Bahamas, Melissa made landfalls on Long Island near Buckley’s Settlement at 2215 UTC 29 October and on San Salvador Island at 0200 UTC 30 October, each with estimated winds of 80 kt. The storm’s maximum estimated sustained winds were 165 kt (1-minute average) at 1200 UTC 28 October, with a minimum central pressure of 892 mb. Those values make Melissa one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin; the dropsonde that measured conditions in the eyewall registered an instantaneous peak wind of 219 kt aloft—the strongest wind ever measured by a dropsonde in a tropical cyclone. Storm surge along southwestern Jamaica reached estimated inundation of about 7 to 11 ft above normally dry ground near Crawford and Black River, with large destructive waves along the immediate coast. Montego Bay and Falmouth saw smaller coastal inundation around 2 to 4 ft above ground level. Rainfall totals were extreme in several areas: Jamaica had localized totals exceeding 32.17 in (817.1 mm) at Knock Patrick and other sites reporting 25–32 in; Haiti reported the highest totals with as much as 36.77 in (934 mm) at Camp Perrin and numerous locations over 30 in; the Dominican Republic had maxima up to 29.02 in (737.2 mm) at Polo; eastern Cuba reported totals up to 26.38 in (670 mm) at Vega Murcia; and parts of the Bahamas recorded up to about 7.78 in (198 mm). At the time of this report, Melissa is associated with 93 known fatalities: 45 in Jamaica, 43 in Haiti, and 5 elsewhere (including three flood-related deaths in Panama and two indirect deaths from a relief-flight crash in Florida). Damage in Jamaica is severe: the World Bank estimate cited here places physical damage at about $12.2 billion USD (roughly 41% of Jamaica’s 2024 GDP), with widespread destruction of homes (especially wooden structures), extensive agricultural and livestock losses, major infrastructure damage, hospitals and communications impaired, and large-scale freshwater flooding and landslides. Eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas also experienced substantial wind, surge, and flood damage; Haiti suffered devastating flooding and infrastructure losses. Noteworthy aspects include Melissa’s exceptional rapid intensification south of Jamaica and its estimated peak that ties or challenges several Atlantic records (165 kt peak winds tied for highest, 892 mb tied for among the lowest pressures). A dropsonde recorded the highest instantaneous wind measured in a tropical cyclone (219 kt). Forecast performance was strong for track predictions—NHC guidance and official forecasts provided unusually accurate track forecasts well in advance of the Jamaica landfall—while intensity and rainfall proved more challenging because of the storm’s rapid strengthening and slow, looping motion that produced prolonged, extreme rainfall.