Nadine — 2024

A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea developed into Tropical Storm Nadine at 0000 UTC 19 October 2024, about 160 nautical miles east of Belize City. Nadine moved generally westward across the northwestern Caribbean, strengthened as it approached warm waters, and made landfall near Belize City at about 1600 UTC 19 October. The system crossed northern Belize and Guatemala, weakened to a tropical depression by 0000 UTC 20 October, and degenerated to a remnant low that dissipated over southern Mexico early on 20 October. Mid-level remnants and moisture later contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Kristy in the eastern Pacific on 21 October. Nadine made a single official landfall near Belize City, Belize, at about 1600 UTC on 19 October 2024 as a tropical storm with estimated sustained winds of 50 kt (about 58 mph). After moving inland across northern Belize and Guatemala it weakened to a tropical depression and produced heavy rain and flooding before dissipating over southern Mexico on 20 October. The storm’s estimated peak intensity at landfall was 50 kt (58 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb, corresponding to a tropical storm at its strongest. Aircraft reconnaissance recorded 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt offshore shortly after landfall; adjusted surface estimates and satellite blends support the 50-kt surface intensity. Strongest winds were generally north of the center, and some stations in Quintana Roo (Cancún and Xcalak) reported sustained winds in the mid-30s kt with gusts to mid-40s kt. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the primary hazards. In Belize, Ranchito reported 9.47 inches (240.6 mm) and Yo Creek 8.76 inches (222.4 mm), with typical totals of 4–8 inches across northern and central areas. Guatemala saw up to 4.80 inches (121.9 mm) in Esquipulas. In Mexico rainfall was extreme in places: Ángel Rosario Cabada, Veracruz, recorded 19.07 inches (484.5 mm); Chiapas had a maximum of 13.26 inches (336.8 mm) at El Escalón; Quintana Roo reported 10.27 inches (260.8 mm) at Nicolás Bravo; Tabasco 12.74 inches (323.5 mm) at Tapijulapa; and Campeche 6.77 inches (172.0 mm) at Xpujil. Storm surge reports were limited; no sustained tropical-storm-force winds were officially recorded in Belize, though gusts to 42 kt occurred on Caye Caulker. Nadine was linked to at least 13 reported fatalities in Mexico, with at least 7 categorized as direct deaths (including drowning and deaths from landslides), and several additional deaths under investigation or possibly indirect. The worst damage occurred in southeastern Mexico: Veracruz reported over 30,000 homes and 60 schools damaged across 84 municipalities with numerous rescues, Chiapas had damage to thousands of homes and landslides, and Tabasco, Campeche, and Quintana Roo experienced flooded roads, some structural damage, and power outages. Northern Belize and parts of Guatemala saw localized flooding, road and bridge impacts, and a destroyed pedestrian bridge in San Ignacio. Notable aspects of Nadine included its rapid organization close to land and the difficulty forecasting its genesis; the system formed only hours after being identified as a medium-to-high risk in the Tropical Weather Outlook. NHC track forecasts performed reasonably well for this short-lived storm at 12–24 hours, while intensity forecasts had larger errors for the few verifying cycles. There are no official monetary damage estimates in the report.