Ophelia — 2023

Ophelia formed from a non-tropical low that developed along a stalled front east of Florida. The low became a tropical storm on 22 September 2023 about 240 nautical miles east of Cape Canaveral, moved north-northwest then turned north toward the North Carolina coast, and weakened over land and inland as it tracked across eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia before becoming post-tropical and dissipating by 25 September. Ophelia made landfall near the western end of Emerald Isle, North Carolina, around 1015 UTC on 23 September 2023 with estimated sustained winds of 60 kt (70 mph). After landfall the center moved north-northwest into inland eastern North Carolina and then north into southern Virginia, weakening to a tropical storm and then to an extratropical low on 24 September. The storm’s maximum analyzed intensity was 60 kt (70 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 981 mb, corresponding to a strong tropical storm (just below hurricane strength). Reconnaissance aircraft, surface stations, and dropsondes supported the 60 kt peak; some brief, localized stronger gusts may have occurred but were likely transient. Storm surge produced 3–5 ft of inundation along banks of the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers and Pamlico Sound, with the USGS gage at Washington, North Carolina recording about 4.94 ft above MHHW. Along the coast near the landfall area, Oregon Inlet and Duck tide gauges recorded 2.52 ft and 1.67 ft above MHHW, respectively; Beaufort’s tide gauge peak was 1.75 ft above MHHW. In the lower Chesapeake Bay, Sewells Point, Virginia reached 2.98 ft above MHHW, and Baltimore and Annapolis recorded about 2.29–2.31 ft above MHHW. Rainfall totals were widespread: eastern North Carolina and parts of Virginia generally received 3–5 inches, with a swath of 5–7 inches near the track. The maximum rainfall reported was 9.51 inches near Greenville, North Carolina; Greenville and New Bern experienced flash flooding and road closures. There were no reported fatalities or injuries directly attributed to Ophelia. Impacts were mainly gust-driven wind damage, storm-surge and riverine inundation, and localized flooding—downed trees and power lines, minor roof damage in Carteret County, and storm surge flooding in New Bern where waterfront areas and some homes were inundated. At the storm’s peak about 70,000 customers in eastern North Carolina and Virginia lost power. NOAA’s damage estimate to the United States is about $450 million. One short-lived EF-0 tornado touched down in a field in Perquimans County, NC causing no damage. Noteworthy aspects include Ophelia’s transition from a non-tropical low to a tropical storm shortly before landfall, the NHC’s early use of Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories and storm surge warnings for the system’s precursor, and generally good forecasts of the storm’s landfall location and timing despite challenges in predicting its structural change.