Oscar — 2024

A compact tropical wave became Tropical Storm Oscar at 0000 UTC 19 October 2024 about 155 n mi north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Oscar intensified rapidly over very warm water and became a hurricane by 1800 UTC 19 October. It tracked westward, passed over Grand Turk at about 2015 UTC 19 October, then turned southwest toward eastern Cuba and made landfall near Baracoa, Guantánamo province around 2200 UTC 20 October. The storm weakened over Cuba, moved back offshore briefly, crossed the central Bahamas, and had dissipated (opened into a trough) by 1800 UTC 22 October when its remnants were absorbed by a larger non-tropical low. Oscar made two principal landfalls: Grand Turk Island (Turks and Caicos) about 2015 UTC 19 October as a hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 75 kt (85 mph is the closest conversion for peak eyewall observations supporting that intensity), and near Baracoa, Cuba about 2200 UTC 20 October as a 75-kt (approximately 85 mph) hurricane. After moving inland across eastern Cuba the system weakened quickly to a tropical storm by 0600 UTC 21 October. Peak intensity was 75 kt (85 mph) with an estimated minimum central pressure near 984–987 mb (reports support 987 mb at the first peak and 984 mb around the Cuba landfall). Oscar was a Category 1 hurricane at its peak. Storm surge along eastern Cuba’s north coast reached about 2.5–3.0 feet (0.78–1.00 m), with very large waves 13–20 ft (4–6 m) reported at Mata Bay and the mouth of the Toa River that produced severe coastal flooding near landfall. Rainfall totals in eastern Cuba were extreme in places: Valle de Caujerí (San Antonio del Sur) recorded 24.80 inches (630.2 mm) from 20–21 October (including over 10 inches in a 3-hour period), Gran Tierra (Maisí) 24.13 inches (612.9 mm), Guaibano 21.73 inches (551.9 mm), and Punta de Maisí 17.04 inches (432.9 mm). Rain in the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas was much lower, generally 1–3 inches. Oscar directly caused at least eight deaths in Guantánamo province, Cuba, due to flash flooding and landslides; two people were reported missing at the time of the report. Major impacts were concentrated in eastern Cuba (Guantánamo and parts of Holguín): about 150,000 people were critically affected, roughly 14,000 homes and facilities suffered significant damage, over 1,000 buildings had partial roof collapse, about 35 miles (56 km) of roads were damaged including at least seven bridges, and extensive agricultural losses (50%+ damage to banana plantations and 70–80% crop damage near Baracoa and Punta de Maisí). Damage was preliminarily estimated at upward of $50 million (USD). Turks and Caicos and Inagua (Bahamas) experienced more limited wind, tree, and roof damage. Noteworthy aspects include Oscar’s very rapid intensification from a non-tropical disturbance to hurricane strength within about 36 hours, and its unusually small wind field (hurricane-force winds extended only about 5 n mi from the center at one peak). Forecasts struggled with genesis timing and location (low hit rate for early outlooks), and the initial intensity forecasts did not fully anticipate the rapid strengthening on 19 October, prompting a special advisory when reconnaissance found hurricane conditions.