Rafael — 2024

Hurricane Rafael developed from a large Central American Gyre in the central Caribbean Sea. The system became a tropical depression at 1200 UTC 4 November about 180 nautical miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, strengthened to a tropical storm six hours later, and moved northwestward. It underwent rapid intensification beginning late on 5 November, became a hurricane just south of Little Cayman by 0000 UTC 6 November, and tracked across the northwestern Caribbean into western Cuba and then the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Rafael weakened over time in the central Gulf and lost tropical cyclone characteristics by 1200 UTC 10 November, dissipating into a trough later that day. Rafael made landfall in western Cuba on 6 November at 2115 UTC just east of Playa Majana in Artemisa province. The official best track indicates Rafael was a major hurricane at landfall with estimated 1‑minute sustained winds of 100 knots (115 mph) and an estimated central pressure near 955 mb. After crossing Cuba the cyclone emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and moved north-northwestward before weakening and dissipating several days later south of the Louisiana coast. The hurricane’s peak intensity is listed at 105 knots (121 mph) with a minimum central pressure of about 954 mb, making Rafael a Category 3 storm at its strongest. That 105‑kt peak is tied as the strongest November hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico (tied with Hurricane Kate, 1985). The 100‑kt intensity at Cuban landfall is somewhat uncertain due to limited direct observations just before landfall, but nearby reports (for example, Mariel) supported very strong winds. Storm surge observations were limited for western Cuba, though Cuban authorities reported high surge on the north coast west of where Rafael emerged into the Straits of Florida. In the Florida Keys the peak inundation observed was less than 1.2 ft above Mean Higher High Water; some tide gauges and stations reported storm tides and estimated inundations around 1.2–2.6 ft at Key West locations. Heavy rain affected western and west-central Cuba, with common totals of 4–8 inches and a maximum reported total of 8.56 inches (218 mm) at Bauta in Artemisa province. Cayman Brac reported about 11 inches (~280 mm) of rain. The Florida Keys saw mostly lighter rain, with up to 3.43 inches at Cudjoe Key. Jamaica also received very heavy rainfall and flooding, though station totals were not available in the report. Rafael caused at least two direct fatalities in Jamaica when a truck was swept away by floodwaters. Media reports cited additional storm-related fatalities before Rafael became a tropical cyclone associated with the precursor gyre: about five flood-related deaths in Panama and one in Colombia. In Cuba Rafael was destructive in western provinces (Artemisa, Mayabeque, La Habana): over 3,000 homes were reported damaged in Artemisa and Mayabeque, widespread crop losses across tens of thousands of acres, the national electrical grid in the affected areas was knocked offline, and communications (cellular and landlines) were widely disrupted. Preliminary Cuban damage estimates were around $1 billion (USD). Jamaica reported about $8 million (USD) in damage; Cayman Brac experienced tree and powerline damage and structural impacts. Noteworthy items: Rafael intensified rapidly over very warm Caribbean waters and is tied for the strongest November hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC track forecasts for Rafael performed very well, with errors well below recent averages, while intensity forecasts had larger errors early on (they initially underpredicted the peak near Cuba and overpredicted persistence in the Gulf). Extensive aircraft reconnaissance (21 missions) and many satellite and ship observations were used to construct the best track and intensity estimates.