Carlotta — 2024

A tropical depression formed near 0600 UTC on 31 July about 350 nautical miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, after a tropical wave moved over Central America a few days earlier. The system strengthened to Tropical Storm Carlotta later that day and moved generally northwestward. Carlotta became a hurricane on 2 August and reached its peak early on 3 August before weakening over progressively cooler waters and dissipating by 8 August. Carlotta did not produce any coastal watches or warnings and there were no reported landfalls on the Mexican mainland. The closest approach to land noted in observations was near Clarion Island, where measurements were made on 2–3 August as the storm passed nearby. The hurricane’s peak intensity was estimated at 80 knots (approximately 92 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 979 mb at 0600 UTC on 3 August, corresponding to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Surface observations from Clarion Island on 2 August reported sustained winds of 47 kt (54 mph) with a gust to 71 kt (82 mph) and a station pressure of 985.8 mb at 1300 UTC that day. Measured storm surge reports or large-scale coastal inundation were not reported in the record; notable observational impacts were limited to Clarion Island. Rainfall totals in the report are not listed for mainland cities or counties, and no significant rainfall totals affecting named Mexican cities or counties were documented in the NHC report. There were no reports of damage or any direct or indirect fatalities associated with Carlotta. Forecasts for Carlotta’s formation and track generally performed well: the system was first mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook about 120–168 hours before genesis with increasing probabilities closer to formation, and NHC track and intensity forecast errors were below recent 5-year means through 72 hours (with some modest overforecasting of intensity after the storm’s peak).