Flossie — 2025

A tropical depression formed about 235 nautical miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, at 0600 UTC on 29 June 2025 from a tropical wave that had crossed Central America on 25 June. The system became Tropical Storm Flossie 12 hours later and moved west‑northwestward roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. It intensified in warm, low-shear waters and rapidly strengthened between 0000 UTC 30 June and 0000 UTC 1 July. Flossie reached peak intensity on 2 July as it passed just offshore southwestern Mexico, then moved over cooler waters and drier air and weakened, becoming post‑tropical at 1200 UTC 3 July and opening into a trough by 0000 UTC 6 July. Flossie did not make a direct landfall on the Mexican coast. Its closest approach occurred on 1–2 July when outer rain bands and high surf affected the west‑central coast of Mexico from areas near Manzanillo northward. Tropical storm watches and warnings were issued and later discontinued for portions of the southwest Mexican coast between Zihuantanejo and Cabo Corrientes and for areas from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. The cyclone’s maximum sustained winds were estimated at 105 knots (121 mph) at 0300 UTC 2 July, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 958 mb. That peak intensity corresponds to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir‑Simpson scale. Satellite‑based intensity estimates and a more defined eye on infrared imagery supported the peak values. High surf and outer rain bands produced storm surge and rainfall impacts along the southwestern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches (25–75 mm) were reported in portions of southwestern Mexico on 29 June where the ground was already saturated from an earlier event. The highest measured land wind was at Manzanillo’s Aeropuerto Internacional Playa de Oro (MMZO), which recorded sustained winds of 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt at 0055 UTC 2 July. No specific storm surge height measurements were reported in the observations, but hazardous surf and coastal inundation were noted along beaches such as Playa Olas Altas in Manzanillo. Flossie caused one confirmed direct fatality in Mexico when a young man was swept away by rough surf at Playa Olas Altas in the municipality of Manzanillo early on 30 June. Damage was described as limited, consisting mainly of minor flooding from outer rain bands. Forecast performance was generally good: NHC track and intensity forecasts for Flossie had lower than average errors compared with recent years, though some models underestimated the rapid intensification. The storm’s genesis location forecasts were accurate even though the system formed later than initially expected.