John — 2024

A westward-moving tropical wave that crossed Central America in mid-September organized into a tropical depression about 210 nautical miles south‑southeast of Acapulco on 22 September 2024. The system strengthened to Tropical Storm John on 23 September and rapidly intensified into a major hurricane late that day. John made its first landfall near Marquelia in eastern Guerrero on 24 September, weakened over land into a broad low, then moved back over the eastern Pacific on 25 September, re‑strengthened to hurricane strength on 26 September, weakened again, and made a second landfall near Playa Zapote de Tizupan, Michoacán on 27 September before dissipating over southwestern Mexico. John made two landfalls in Mexico. The first landfall occurred near Marquelia, Guerrero around 0315 UTC 24 September as a Category 3 hurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt (about 120 mph). The second landfall was near Playa Zapote de Tizupan, Michoacán around 1600 UTC 27 September as a tropical storm with estimated sustained winds near 50 kt (about 58 mph). The storm’s maximum analyzed intensity was 105 kt (approximately 120 mph) with a best‑track minimum central pressure near 956 mb at the time of first landfall, corresponding to a high-end Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. That peak intensity is based primarily on satellite Dvorak estimates and the presumption of slight additional strengthening up to landfall. John produced extreme rainfall and flooding. Acapulco recorded a storm total of 1,442 mm (about 56.8 inches), including roughly 44.6 inches from 24–26 September. The heaviest rains fell in the states of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Michoacán, causing widespread flooding and landslides. Available observations reported gusts inland near Las Vigas (elevation 41 m) to 69 kt and a minimum pressure there of 986.4 mb; ship reports and coastal observations documented sustained tropical‑storm‑force winds offshore. The report does not give widespread, specific storm surge maps, but coastal flooding and very large rainfall totals were the dominant coastal and inland impacts. According to media reports compiled in the report, John was responsible for 29 deaths in Mexico, with 23 fatalities reported in Guerrero and most of the fatalities described as direct. Substantial damage resulted from flooding, landslides, and wind, including roofs blown off structures, blocked highways, and landslides in Acapulco; an estimated total economic loss reported by Gallagher Re was about $2.45 billion (U.S.). Notable aspects included John’s rapid intensification before the first landfall, the storm’s degeneration after that landfall and subsequent re‑genesis and restrengthening offshore, and relatively short lead times for genesis forecasts. NHC track and intensity forecasts had larger‑than‑average errors for this event, and the rapid intensification was not well anticipated until shortly before landfall; watches and warnings for parts of the coast were issued with limited lead time.