Lorena — 2025

A compact area of thunderstorms that moved from Africa across the Atlantic and into the eastern Pacific developed into a tropical depression about 120 nautical miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico at 0000 UTC on 2 September 2025. The system strengthened into Tropical Storm Lorena six hours later and moved generally northwestward well south and then west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Lorena intensified steadily, became a Category 1 hurricane by 0600 UTC 3 September, reached peak strength late on 3 September, then encountered stronger wind shear and cooler water on 4 September and weakened to a post-tropical low by 0000 UTC 5 September. The remnant low lingered several days offshore before opening into a trough on 7 September. Lorena remained offshore and did not make any confirmed landfall on the Baja California peninsula. The storm’s center passed roughly 85–100 nautical miles southwest to west of Cabo San Lucas and the southern Baja coast during its period of greatest strength on 3–4 September, producing heavy rain and localized coastal impacts in nearby municipalities but no documented cyclone landfalls. The cyclone’s maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (about 86 mph) with an estimated minimum central pressure of 981 mb at peak (1800 UTC 3 September–0000 UTC 4 September). Reconnaissance aircraft measured flight-level winds up to 79 kt and a dropsonde measured a 70-kt surface wind in the northeast eyewall; those observations and satellite estimates supported the 75-kt peak. Rainfall totals were heavy across southern Baja California Sur. The highest official totals included 12.28 inches (312.0 mm) at Santa Anita, 10.43 inches (265.0 mm) at Yeneka, 10.24 inches (260.0 mm) at Boca del Salado, 8.98 inches (228.0 mm) at San José del Cabo, and 7.86 inches (199.6 mm) at El Sauzal. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts were reported in Cabo San Lucas (53 kt) and Sierra La Laguna (44 kt). The report did not list any measured persistent storm surge heights at specific tide gauges. No deaths or injuries could be confidently attributed to Lorena. The heaviest impacts were in the Baja California Sur municipalities of Los Cabos, La Paz, Mulegé, Loreto, and Comondú, where flooding inundated at least eight homes, swept away three houses, stranded about 50 vehicles, caused four landslides, and left 119 people in four temporary shelters; electrical service disruption was minor. Media reports of fatalities in Nayarit and Sinaloa were reviewed and determined not to be related to Lorena. Notable aspects included an accurate long-range identification of the precursor disturbance in NHC outlooks (genesis highlighted up to 156 hours before formation) and timely watches and warnings for southern Baja. Forecast track and intensity errors were larger than recent 5-year averages because many guidance models and forecasts kept Lorena stronger and steered it closer to Baja than actually occurred; some consensus and ensemble models (for example the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean) performed particularly well in predicting the cyclone would stall offshore.