Raymond — 2025

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern North Pacific near southern Mexico gradually organized into a tropical depression at 0600 UTC on 9 October 2025 about 75 nautical miles southeast of Acapulco. The system strengthened into Tropical Storm Raymond later that morning and moved generally west-northwest to northwest along the southwestern Mexican coast. Raymond reached its peak intensity while paralleling the coast on 10 October and then weakened as wind shear and dry air displaced its convection. The storm became a remnant low by 1800 UTC 11 October, turned northward, crossed the southern tip of Baja California Sur between 0000–0600 UTC 12 October, briefly emerged over the southern Gulf of California, and dissipated by 1800 UTC 12 October. Raymond did not make a direct tropical-storm-force landfall while fully tropical. After losing its deep convection and becoming a remnant low, the circulation moved over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula between 0000–0600 UTC on 12 October. Prior to dissipation, portions of the Mexican southwest coast from Zihuatanejo northward to Cabo Corrientes were under tropical-storm watches and warnings as Raymond passed just offshore on 9–11 October. The storm’s peak intensity was 50 knots (about 58 mph) with an estimated minimum central pressure of 998 millibars, reached from 0600–1200 UTC on 10 October. Raymond remained a moderate tropical storm at peak and never reached hurricane strength. Raymond produced locally heavy rainfall along the southwestern Mexican coast from 9–11 October. Notable totals reported by Mexico’s weather service included 7.46 inches (189.5 mm) at Zihuatanejo in Guerrero, 6.85 inches (174.0 mm) at La Desembocada in Jalisco, and 5.71 inches (145.0 mm) at El Rosario in Sinaloa. No specific coastal storm-surge measurements are given in the report; observed impacts were primarily from rainfall, localized flooding, and gusty winds. Localized flooding and disruptions to transportation occurred in parts of southwest Mexico as Raymond passed offshore. Damage was reported in some locations, but the report found no conclusive direct link between reported fatalities in the region and Raymond or its precursor disturbance. The areas most affected by rainfall and flooding were portions of Guerrero, Jalisco, and Sinaloa, with later moisture advected into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Southwest after dissipation. Forecasts of Raymond’s development and track were generally accurate. The National Hurricane Center noted that the potential for development was identified more than five days before formation and that genesis location forecasts were highly skillful. Official track and intensity forecasts for Raymond performed as well as or better than available guidance at most lead times.