Saudel

Western Pacific Typhoon · WP172026

20.4°N, 143.6°E

Moving NW at 17 mph

Max Winds

130 mph

Pressure

956 mb

Forecast Points

JMA Winds (10-min avg)

80.0 kt

JMA Pressure

950.0 hPa

JMA (10-min average): Typhoon No. 2618 · Saudel

Summary

Typhoon Saudel is a powerful typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. It is moving northwest and is forecast to keep tracking generally northwest for the next couple of days. As of 221800Z, the center was about 943 nautical miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at about 17 mph. Satellite imagery shows the eye has been rapidly deteriorating and shrinking, with most of the deep thunderstorms confined to the southwestern side, and the system is likely undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which can temporarily disrupt the storm’s structure. In the near term, the eyewall replacement cycle is expected to cause a small amount of weakening or keep the storm near its current intensity through about 12 hours (still around 132 mph). After that, the forecast calls for strengthening, peaking at about 144 mph around 24–36 hours, then gradual weakening to about 121 mph by 60 hours, about 109 mph by 72 hours, and about 92 mph by 96 hours. The forecast track takes Saudel northwestward toward the Ryukyu chain, passing through the Ryukyu chain in the vicinity of Okinawa shortly after 72 hours. By 96 hours, it is expected to begin turning west-southwestward to the northeast of Taiwan, though the longer-range track becomes more uncertain after about 60 hours as forecast models diverge on how the steering pattern evolves.

Key messages

Saudel is a 130 mph typhoon moving northwest and is expected to continue generally northwest for the next couple of days.
The typhoon is forecast to pass through the Ryukyu chain in the vicinity of Okinawa shortly after 72 hours, then turn west-southwestward to the northeast of Taiwan by 96 hours.
An eyewall replacement cycle may briefly weaken or stall strengthening in the next 12 hours, followed by a forecast peak near 144 mph around 24–36 hours before gradual weakening.

Forecast intensity

JTWC forecast maximum sustained winds (mph) by hour.

Satellite Imagery (IR)

CIRA/RAMMB · 23 Aug 00:00 UTC

JTWC Warning #18 22 Aug 18:00 UTC

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 018    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 143.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 143.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 21.8N 141.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 23.0N 138.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 24.0N 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 25.0N 133.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   60 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 25.8N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 26.4N 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 27.0N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 26.4N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 143.0E.
22AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 943 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Forecast Reasoning 22 Aug 21:00 UTC

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.4N 143.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 943 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND SHRINKING EYE FEATURE, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND WARMING
CLOUD-TOPS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A
REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION IN JUST THE PAST TWO HOURS, FROM HAVING A
WELL-DEFINED, IF A BIT RAGGED, EYE FEATURE, TO NOW BARELY HOLDING
ONTO AN EXTREMELY SMALL AND ILL-DEFINED EYE, WITH WANING
CONVECTION. A 221550Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES SOME
INSIGHT INTO THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE, NAMELY THE ONSET OF AN ERC. THE
AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL, CONSISTENT WITH
THE EIR IMAGERY AT THAT TIME, AND A STRONG SECONDARY EYEWALL
EVIDENT ABOUT 60NM OUTWARD FROM THE INNER. A MOAT IS ALSO EVIDENT
WRAPPING UP THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CORE, ALL OF WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH AN ERC. THE CIMSS M-PERC ERC ONSET PROBABILITY
JUMPED UP TO 45 PERCENT BASED ON THIS RECENT DATA. A 221850Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH AN EVEN BETTER
DEFINED MOAT, AND SECONDARY EYEWALL AND A MORE DEGRADED INNER
EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ERODING EYE IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF
NEARLY ALL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED
BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE OVERALL, WITH WARM
SSTS, HIGH (100 KJ PER CM2 OR GREATER) OHC, LOW DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY
SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AND THE ERC WILL SERVE TO OFFSET THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
IN THE NEAR-TERM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 114 KTS AT 221800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 221800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 101 KTS AT 221800Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 118 KTS AT 221610Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 116 KTS AT 221800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL; MODERATE MID-LEVEL
SHEAR; EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SAUDEL) IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST, CONNECTING WITH
A SECOND STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
BEGINNING AT TAU 60 HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THE RIDGING PATTERN, SPECIFICALLY IN REGARDS TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL IMPACT THE RIDGE. THE GFS
DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE
RIDGE FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 84, WHICH RESULTS IN A RAPID SLOWDOWN OF
TY 17W AS IT CROSSES THE RYUKYUS BEFORE TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST
AS A RIDGE OVER CHINA BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER
TAU 96. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER, NEARLY
NON-EXISTENT, TROUGH WHICH DOES NOT BREAK THE RIDGE, RESULTING IN A
FASTER TRACK WHICH EVENTUALLY CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO. TY 17W WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 60 AS IT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE, BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE RYUKYU CHAIN IN THE VICINITY OF OKINAWA SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN CHINA BY TAU 96, AND BEGINS A TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE LIKELY ONSET OF AN
ERC WILL RESULT IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF WEAKENING OR MAINTENANCE OF
THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. ONCE THE ERC IS COMPLETE, THE
SYSTEM WILL RESUME INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OVER A POOL OF HIGH
OHC WATERS, WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BY TAU
36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN TERMS OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WITH A RESULTANT REDUCTION IN OUTFLOW ALOFT.
BY TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN SHEAR, ACCELERATING
THE WEAKENING TREND BEGUN 12 HOURS EARLIER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO STEADILY WEAKEN FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS, THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN A
STRONG TYPHOON AS IT PASSES OKINAWA. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EAST CHINA SEA, CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING TY 17W TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
OF 155NM BETWEEN JGSM ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND THE CLUSTER OF GFS,
GEFS AND THE AI MODELS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN (MODIFIED TO DISREGARD
NAVGEM), AND THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER, JUST SOUTH OF THE
AI-GFS CLUSTER NOTED ABOVE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE LONG-RANGE
FORECAST, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, PRIMARILY
IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION. ECMWF IS BY FAR THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SHOWING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU
120. THE AI-GFS CLUSTER ARE THE SLOWEST, REMAINING EAST OF 124E
LONGITUDE BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MODIFIED CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE HAFS-A DEPICTING STEADY
WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12 TO TAU 96 BEFORE FLATTENING OUT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE MEAN, AND
THE JTWC FORECAST. OF NOTE, THE RIDE, RI25 AND RI30 RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS ARE TRIGGERED WITH THIS RUN, THOUGH WITH
THE ONSET OF THE ERC, APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

Products not available for West Pacific storms

NEXRAD radar — no radar coverage over the open West Pacific.
Storm-surge inundation — no public storm-surge model for this basin.
Wind-speed probabilities — JTWC does not publish them.
Watches and warnings — issued by local agencies (PAGASA, JMA, CWA), not JTWC.
Reconnaissance aircraft — no routine aircraft reconnaissance in the West Pacific.
Rapid-intensification and shear diagnostics — SHIPS-based guidance is not published for this basin.

These are data-availability limits for the West Pacific basin, not omissions.

Source: U.S. Navy/Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), via the UCAR Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project. JTWC data is in the public domain. · Updated 2026-08-22 20:55 UTC · JMA analysis: Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (10-minute average winds). Satellite imagery: CIRA/RAMMB.