Reading NHC Products
The cone, track maps, wind probabilities, in plain language.
See also the Products Guide for how to read each NHC graphic.
The Cone of Uncertainty: What It Shows (and What It Hides)
The cone is the most recognized hurricane graphic — and the most dangerously misread. It shows where the storm's center may go, not who gets hit. Here's what it actually means, the mistake that gets people hurt, and how to read it the right way.
beginnerReading Hurricane Track Forecast Maps 🔒
The track forecast map is the picture you'll watch most during a storm. Here's how to read every part fast — the center line and its D/S/H/M strength dots, the cone (and what it isn't), and the watch/warning colors that actually tell you who needs to act.
beginnerUnderstanding NHC Products 🔒
NHC puts out a whole family of products during a storm — advisories, the forecaster's discussion, the cone, surge and wind graphics, and the 2- and 7-day outlook before a storm even forms. Here's what each one is for and how to use them together.
intermediateWind Probabilities Explained 🔒
The cone shows where the center might go; the wind-speed probabilities tell you the odds that dangerous winds actually reach you — folding in all the forecast uncertainty. Here's how to read them, and why a 40% chance is a reason to act.
intermediateSpaghetti Models, Explained 🔒
Those tangled colored lines on a hurricane map are 'spaghetti models' — each a different computer's track forecast. Here's how to read them (tight = confident, spread = uncertain), the mistake of fixating on one line, and why the official NHC forecast beats any single model.
beginner